Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Madani vs Umm Mughad

Sudan Sudan

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Madani in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Madani.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Madani
20%
Draws
44%
Umm Mughad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Umm Mughad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Madani lately — more wins on the board than Umm Mughad.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Madani taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Madani here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Madani Clean Sheet 17%
Umm Mughad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madani Umm Mughad
Matches Played 32 23
Wins 19 9
Draws 7 8
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.63 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 Premier League
Madani vs Umm Mughad
3:1
Jan 31, 2026 Premier League
Madani vs Umm Mughad
2:1
Jan 11, 2026 Premier League
Umm Mughad vs Madani
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madani 75 / 100
Umm Mughad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madani Umm Mughad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madani Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Madani scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Umm Mughad has conceded goals in 61% of their last 23 outings.

Madani went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Madani VS Umm Mughad
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Madani

(Home)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
09 Jun
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 2
Madani
05 Jun
Madani
3 : 1
Umm Mughad
02 Jun
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
2 : 0
Madani
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Umm Mughad

(Away)
09 Jun
Umm Mughad
3 : 1
Alfalah Atbra
05 Jun
Madani
3 : 1
Umm Mughad
01 Jun
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 0
Umm Mughad
28 May
Umm Mughad
2 : 1
Hilal El-Fasher
24 May
Umm Mughad
0 : 3
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman II 7 7 0 0 16:1 21
2 Al-Merreikh II 7 6 0 1 21:4 18
3 Hilal Alsahil 7 3 2 2 10:6 11
4 Madani 7 3 2 2 13:11 11
5 Umm Mughad 7 3 0 4 10:15 9
6 Hilal El-Fasher 7 1 2 4 4:7 5
7 Hay Al Wadi 7 1 2 4 6:14 5
8 Alfalah Atbra 7 0 0 7 2:24 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)