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Mafra vs Amarante FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Ventura
Assist: Saint-Louis J.
18'
Camara M.
36'
Innusah H.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Mafra and Amarante FC finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Mafra
20%
Draws
38%
Amarante FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Mafra haven't matched Amarante FC's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Mafra taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Amarante FC have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mafra Amarante FC
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 14
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.46 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Amarante FC
1:4
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Mafra
1:0
Sep 6, 2014 Taça de Portugal
Amarante FC vs Mafra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Iheanacho S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zangre A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mafra 51 / 100
Amarante FC 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mafra Amarante FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mafra's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Amarante FC has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Mafra has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mafra VS Amarante FC
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mafra

(Home)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
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Amarante FC

(Away)
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)