Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Magallanes vs San Marcos de Arica

Chile Chile

Liga de Ascenso Estadio Santiago Bueras
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Coronel S.
6' Event
Donadell N.
Penalty Missed
23'
Aguila Bastias Y. M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Ascenso matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Magallanes
33%
Draws
27%
San Marcos de Arica
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Magallanes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to San Marcos de Arica lately — more wins on the board than Magallanes.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Magallanes taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Magallanes Clean Sheet 68%
San Marcos de Arica Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Magallanes San Marcos de Arica
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 4 9
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.38 0.88
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Magallanes vs San Marcos de Arica
1:1
Jul 29, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes
2:2
Mar 7, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Magallanes vs San Marcos de Arica
0:1
Aug 31, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes
0:1
Apr 20, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
Magallanes vs San Marcos de Arica
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Magallanes Compare

Top Goalscorer Peraza F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

San Marcos de Arica Compare

Top Goalscorer Donadell N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Magallanes 50 / 100
San Marcos de Arica 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Magallanes San Marcos de Arica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Away concern: San Marcos de Arica has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Magallanes found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: San Marcos de Arica conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Magallanes VS San Marcos de Arica
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cobreloa1585230:1729
2S. Wanderers1575329:1826
3San Marcos de Arica1567219:1125
4Deportes Temuco1565426:1823
5Antofagasta1565422:1623
6San Luis1565424:2123
7D. Puerto Montt1572617:1623
8U. Espanola1564521:1922
9Magallanes1564524:2422
10Recoleta1564524:2422
11Copiapo1564521:2322
12Curico Unido1546516:2418
13San Felipe1544713:2716
14Deportes Iquique1527619:2313
15Deportes Santa Cruz1526719:2612
16Rangers15031211:283