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Magenta vs USD Casatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Gningue M.
18' Event
Goffi T.
30' Event
Ferrante F.

AI Match Summary

USD Casatese in this Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored USD Casatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Magenta
30%
Draws
33%
USD Casatese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Magenta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Magenta haven't matched USD Casatese's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Magenta a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Magenta Clean Sheet 20%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Magenta USD Casatese
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 15
Draws 10 8
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 0.9 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Magenta vs USD Casatese
1:5
Oct 19, 2024 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Magenta
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Magenta Compare

Top Goalscorer Raso A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Goffi T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gningue M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Magenta 42 / 100
USD Casatese 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Magenta USD Casatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Magenta went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Magenta scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

USD Casatese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS USD Casatese
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Magenta

(Home)
04 May
Varesina
1 : 1
Magenta
27 Apr
Magenta
2 : 0
Sant'Angelo
17 Apr
Chievo
4 : 0
Magenta
13 Apr
Magenta
0 : 0
Sangiuliano City
06 Apr
Breno
1 : 3
Magenta
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USD Casatese

(Away)
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
23 Aug
Piacenza
2 : 1
USD Casatese
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
10 May
USD Casatese
4 : 0
AC Leon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ospitaletto 38 21 12 5 66:34 75
2 Pro Palazzolo 38 20 10 8 69:36 70
3 Desenzano Calvina 38 19 12 7 51:29 69
4 USD Casatese 38 19 11 8 58:34 68
5 Folgore Caratese 38 20 8 10 66:42 68
6 Varesina 38 17 13 8 61:44 64
7 Chievo 38 16 9 13 49:37 57
8 Pro Sesto 38 13 13 12 45:43 52
9 Club Milano 38 14 7 17 44:50 49
10 Sant'Angelo 38 11 15 12 41:41 48
11 Sondrio 38 12 11 15 39:51 47
12 Breno 38 11 14 13 42:53 47
13 Castellanzese 38 10 16 12 43:53 46
14 Vigasio 38 11 12 15 39:41 45
15 Sangiuliano City 38 11 12 15 39:46 45
16 Crema 38 11 11 16 48:57 44
17 Magenta 38 8 12 18 33:53 36
18 Fanfulla 38 6 14 18 28:57 32
19 Ciliverghe Mazzano 38 7 10 21 41:70 31
20 Arconatese 38 7 10 21 33:64 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 (Play Offs)