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Mahlsdorf vs Ahrensfelde

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

46' Event
Zorn C.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Mahlsdorf and Ahrensfelde finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mahlsdorf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Mahlsdorf
20%
Draws
7%
Ahrensfelde
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mahlsdorf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mahlsdorf come out ahead of Ahrensfelde on wins alone.
  • Model gives Mahlsdorf a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Mahlsdorf have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Mahlsdorf Clean Sheet 20%
Ahrensfelde Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mahlsdorf Ahrensfelde
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 1.45 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.39 2.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2025 Club Friendly
Mahlsdorf vs Ahrensfelde
1:0
Dec 14, 2024 Oberliga NOFV-Nord
Mahlsdorf vs Ahrensfelde
3:1
Aug 3, 2024 Oberliga NOFV-Nord
Ahrensfelde vs Mahlsdorf
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mahlsdorf Compare

Top Goalscorer Zorn C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Ahrensfelde Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mahlsdorf 85 / 100
Ahrensfelde 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mahlsdorf Ahrensfelde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mahlsdorf Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ahrensfelde let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Mahlsdorf scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Recent resilience: Mahlsdorf stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mahlsdorf VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mahlsdorf

(Home)
26 Sept
Mahlsdorf
3 : 1
FSV Schwerin
20 Sept
Berliner AK 07
1 : 0
Mahlsdorf
13 Sept
Mahlsdorf
2 : 0
Sparta Lichtenberg
30 Aug
Reinickendorfer
1 : 1
Mahlsdorf
15 Aug
Mahlsdorf
1 : 0
Rathenow
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Ahrensfelde

(Away)
26 Jul
Lichtenberg
3 : 1
Ahrensfelde
16 Jul
Mahlsdorf
1 : 0
Ahrensfelde
13 Jul
Ahrensfelde
0 : 5
Union Berlin
31 May
Ahrensfelde
2 : 2
Rathenow
24 May
Dynamo Schwerin
4 : 0
Ahrensfelde
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