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Malawi vs South Sudan

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations
Malawi Logo

Malawi

Wed, Sep 23, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
South Sudan Logo

South Sudan

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-1. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. South Sudan have shipped 1.68 goals a game lately, while Malawi have conceded 1.2 and scored 0.83. Head-to-head, Malawi have won 2 to South Sudan's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 24, 2021, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 0.76, favoring Malawi. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Malawi
20%
Draws
40%
South Sudan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • South Sudan haven't matched Malawi's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Malawi's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Malawi have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Malawi, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Malawi here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Malawi Clean Sheet 20%
South Sudan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malawi South Sudan
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 5
Draws 5 8
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 0.83 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2021 Africa Cup of Nations
South Sudan vs Malawi
0:1
Nov 13, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations
Malawi vs South Sudan
1:0
Nov 27, 2015 CECAFA Championship
South Sudan vs Malawi
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malawi 40 / 100
South Sudan 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malawi South Sudan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malawi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Sudan let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

South Sudan's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Malawi scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Malawi VS South Sudan
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Malawi

(Home)
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0
Malawi
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Malawi
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
Page 1 of 6

South Sudan

(Away)
29 Mar
South Sudan
0 : 1
Djibouti
26 Mar
Djibouti
0 : 4
South Sudan
25 Nov
Syria
2 : 0
South Sudan
13 Oct
South Sudan
0 : 0
Togo
10 Oct
South Sudan
0 : 5
Senegal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Lesotho 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Gabon 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Niger 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malawi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Egypt 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Angola 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 South Sudan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ghana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Gambia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Ivory Coast 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Somalia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 South Africa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Guinea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Eritrea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sierra Leone 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Equatorial Guinea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Zimbabwe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 D.R. Congo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mauritania 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Burkina Faso 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Benin 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Central Africa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Namibia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Cameroon 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Congo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Comoros 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Libya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Tunisia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Botswana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Uganda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Burundi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Zambia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Togo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ethiopia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Senegal 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Mozambique 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Sudan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cape Verde 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Liberia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Rwanda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mali 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tanzania 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Nigeria 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Madagascar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Guinea Bissau 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)