Sport Picks

Malawi vs South Sudan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe

Malawi

2 - 1

South Sudan

Our Tip

Match Events

20'

Adepoju B.

28'

Albano M.

46'

Sub

Mphasi C. In: Mpinganjira W.

Out: Mphasi C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%

Malawi

15%

Draws

36%

South Sudan

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Malawi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence

South Sudan haven't matched Malawi's recent run of results.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
Malawi have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Malawi, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
History favors Malawi here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%

Malawi Clean Sheet 68%

South Sudan Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Malawi	South Sudan
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	9	6
Draws	5	8
Losses	16	15
Goals Scored	0.9	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.62
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs South Sudan

2:1

Mar 24, 2021 Africa Cup of Nations

South Sudan vs Malawi

0:1

Nov 13, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs South Sudan

1:0

Nov 27, 2015 CECAFA Championship

South Sudan vs Malawi

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malawi Compare

Top Goalscorer Adepoju B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Njaliwa L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

South Sudan Compare

Top Goalscorer Dhata J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.63

Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malawi 41 / 100

South Sudan 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Malawi South Sudan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malawi Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Sudan let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

South Sudan lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Malawi found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Malawi VS South Sudan

0.75 Goals Scored 0.63

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5

25% Over 1.5 50%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Malawi

(Home)

06 Oct

Angola

3 : 1

Malawi

25 Sept

Malawi

2 : 1

South Sudan

09 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 1

Malawi

06 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Malawi

31 Mar

Botswana

1 : 0

Malawi

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South Sudan

(Away)

29 Sept

South Sudan

0 : 5

Egypt

25 Sept

Malawi

2 : 1

South Sudan

29 Mar

South Sudan

0 : 1

Djibouti

26 Mar

Djibouti

0 : 4

South Sudan

25 Nov

Syria

2 : 0

South Sudan

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