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Maldonado vs Atenas

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2025 Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maldonado play Atenas in the Segunda Division 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Maldonado averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Atenas averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Maldonado won 1, Atenas won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 29, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Maldonado and 1.31 for Atenas. This points to a Maldonado double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Maldonado
27%
Draws
34%
Atenas
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Maldonado picked up more points recently compared to Atenas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 18%
Atenas Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Atenas
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.57 1.62
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Maldonado
0:1
Nov 22, 2025 Segunda Division
Maldonado vs Atenas
0:0
Aug 23, 2025 Segunda Division
Maldonado vs Atenas
0:1
Jun 4, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Maldonado
1:1
Aug 31, 2019 Segunda Division
Maldonado vs Atenas
1:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 39 / 100
Atenas 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Atenas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Maldonado or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Maldonado attacking → ← attacking Atenas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Atenas let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Maldonado went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Atenas lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 48
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38