Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade du 26 Mars, Bamako

Mali

1 - 0

Guinea Bissau

Our Tip

Match Events

29'

Encada J.

46'

Sub

Sambinha In: Rofino V. G.

Out: Sambinha

59'

Sub

Sinayoko L. In: Traore A.

Out: Sinayoko L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mali in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Mali

30%

Draws

31%

Guinea Bissau

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence

Guinea Bissau haven't matched Mali's recent run of results.
39% — that's where the model lands on Mali taking it.
Mali have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Mali, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 53%

Over 2.5 Goals 24%

Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%

Mali Clean Sheet 68%

Guinea Bissau Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mali	Guinea Bissau
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	13	4
Draws	10	7
Losses	7	17
Goals Scored	1.33	0.75
Goals Conceded	0.6	1.64
Expected Goals (xG)	1.26	0.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Guinea Bissau vs Mali

0:0

Oct 11, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mali vs Guinea Bissau

1:0

Jan 6, 2024 Friendly International

Mali vs Guinea Bissau

6:2

Aug 22, 2022 Friendly International

Mali vs Guinea Bissau

0:0

Aug 4, 2019 African Nations Championship

Mali vs Guinea Bissau

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mali Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure E. B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.97

Avg xA / game 0.63

Guinea Bissau Compare

Avg xG / game 0.42

Avg xA / game 0.26

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mali 77 / 100

Guinea Bissau 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mali Guinea Bissau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guinea Bissau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Mali found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Mali stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mali VS Guinea Bissau

1.38 Goals Scored 0.43

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.14

63% Over 1.5 43%

25% Over 2.5 14%

13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Mali

(Home)

04 Jun

Iran

2 : 0

Mali

31 Mar

Russia

0 : 0

Mali

09 Jan

Mali

0 : 1

Senegal

03 Jan

Mali

2 : 1

Tunisia

29 Dec

Comoros

0 : 0

Mali

Page 1 of 6

Guinea Bissau

(Away)

31 Mar

Burkina Faso

1 : 1

Guinea Bissau

28 Mar

Burkina Faso

5 : 0

Guinea Bissau

12 Oct

Egypt

1 : 0

Guinea Bissau

08 Oct

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Guinea Bissau

08 Sept

Guinea Bissau

2 : 0

Djibouti

Page 1 of 6