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Mali W vs Benin W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Olympic Games Women
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 3-1. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Mali W at 2.12 goals for, 1.09 against; Benin W at 1.19 for, 2 against. Past meetings favor Mali W slightly — 2-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 8, 2026, ending 3:1. xG projections (1.44 - 1.38) back Mali W to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Mali W
15%
Draws
51%
Benin W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benin W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mali W come out ahead of Benin W on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Mali W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mali W, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Mali W here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Mali W Clean Sheet 17%
Benin W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mali W Benin W
Matches Played 43 27
Wins 18 6
Draws 11 2
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 2.12 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.09 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2026 Olympic Games Women
Benin W vs Mali W
3:1
Aug 6, 2006 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Benin W vs Mali W
0:1
Jul 22, 2006 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Mali W vs Benin W
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mali W 31 / 100
Benin W 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mali W Benin W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mali W scored in 81% of their last 42 outings.

Benin W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Benin W's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mali W VS Benin W
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mali W

(Home)
08 Oct
Benin W
3 : 1
Mali W
06 Aug
Mali W
1 : 1
Ghana W
02 Aug
Mali W
3 : 2
Cape Verde W
29 Jul
Cameroon W
2 : 1
Mali W
20 Jul
Mali W
0 : 1
Ivory Coast W
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Benin W

(Away)
08 Oct
Benin W
3 : 1
Mali W
11 Jul
Cameroon W
3 : 1
Benin W
09 Jun
Morocco U23 W
3 : 2
Benin W
05 Jun
Morocco W
4 : 2
Benin W
14 Apr
Benin W
2 : 0
Comoros W
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Tunisia W -
TBD -
TBD -
Senegal W -
Benin W -
TBD -
TBD -
Mali W -
Congo W -
TBD -
TBD -
Morocco W -
Sudan W 0
Comoros W 30
TBD -
Nigeria W -
Guinea W -
TBD -
TBD -
Cameroon W -
D.R. Congo W -
TBD -
TBD -
Ivory Coast W -
Central Africa W -
TBD -
TBD -
Algeria W -
Burkina Faso W -
TBD -
TBD -
Equatorial Guinea W -
Rwanda W -
TBD -
TBD -
Ethiopia W -
Botswana W -
TBD -
TBD -
Tanzania W -
Angola W -
TBD -
TBD -
Namibia W -
South Sudan W 1
Madagascar W 2
TBD -
South Africa W -
Seychelles W -
TBD -
TBD -
Kenya W -
Malawi W -
TBD -
TBD -
Zimbabwe W -
Uganda W -
TBD -
TBD -
Zambia W -
Mauritius W 3
Djibouti W 1
TBD -
Ghana W -
1/8-finals
Tunisia W 0
Senegal W 1
Benin W 3
Mali W 1
Congo W -
Morocco W -
Comoros W -
Nigeria W -
Guinea W -
Cameroon W -
D.R. Congo W -
Ivory Coast W -
Central Africa W -
Algeria W -
Burkina Faso W 3
Equatorial Guinea W 1
Rwanda W 0
Ethiopia W 1
Botswana W -
Tanzania W -
Angola W -
Namibia W -
Madagascar W -
South Africa W -
Seychelles W 0
Kenya W 11
Malawi W 0
Zimbabwe W 0
Uganda W 2
Zambia W 1
Mauritius W 0
Ghana W 3
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
Morocco W -
TBD -
Cameroon W -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -