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World

World Championship 2026 Ta'Qali National Stadium

Poland

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Malta play Poland in the World Championship 2026. Poland are favorites here. Recently, Malta averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. Poland averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Malta won 0, Poland won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 17, 2025 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Malta and 2.00 for Poland. This points to a Poland double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%

Malta

15%

Draws

59%

Poland

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Poland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Malta picked up more points recently compared to Poland.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 2.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Malta Clean Sheet 10%

Poland Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Malta	Poland
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	7	14
Draws	5	7
Losses	17	9
Goals Scored	0.69	1.67
Goals Conceded	1.93	1.4
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 17, 2025 World Championship

Malta vs Poland

Possession: 41% - 47% Cards: 1 - 2

2:3

Mar 24, 2025 World Championship

Poland vs Malta

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

2:0

Dec 11, 2003 Friendly International

Poland vs Malta

Possession: 53% - 60% Cards: 4 - 0

4:0

Feb 3, 1999 Friendly International

Malta vs Poland

Possession: 43% - 41% Cards: 4 - 4

0:1

Nov 14, 1981 World Championship

Poland vs Malta

Possession: 49% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malta Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardona I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Poland Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewandowski R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Wszolek P.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malta 25 / 100

Poland 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Malta Poland

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Poland Win (2)

Secondary Pick Poland & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +44.6%

5.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Malta attacking → ← attacking Poland

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malta scored in 48% of their last 29 games.

Poland let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Malta went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Poland lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 49

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0