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Malveira vs Alverca B

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Morais F.
33' Event
Morais F.
50' Event
Dos Santos I.

AI Match Summary

Alverca B in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alverca B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Malveira
30%
Draws
56%
Alverca B
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Alverca B have won more games recently than Malveira.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Alverca B taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Malveira Clean Sheet 14%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malveira Alverca B
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 16
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.5 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.91 1.58
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Malveira vs Alverca B
1:2
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs Malveira
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malveira Compare

Top Goalscorer Dos Santos I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.7
Avg xA / game 0.46

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Morais F.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.44
Avg xA / game 0.88

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malveira 10 / 100
Alverca B 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malveira Alverca B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malveira scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Alverca B's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Malveira remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Malveira VS Alverca B
1.25 Goals Scored 2.29
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.57
63% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 71%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Malveira

(Home)
31 May
Oliveira Hospital
1 : 1
Malveira
23 May
Malveira
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
17 May
Louletano
1 : 1
Malveira
10 May
Malveira
0 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
03 May
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Malveira
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Alverca B

(Away)
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
04 Apr
Alverca B
0 : 1
GD Alcochetense
29 Mar
Alverca B
4 : 0
Portimonense B
22 Mar
Oriental
1 : 2
Alverca B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)