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Malveira vs Alverca B - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Morais F.
33' Event
Morais F.
50' Event
Dos Santos I.

AI Match Summary

Alverca B in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alverca B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Malveira
15%
Draws
51%
Alverca B
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Alverca B have won more games recently than Malveira.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Alverca B taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Malveira Clean Sheet 15%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malveira Alverca B
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 11 5
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.34 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.60 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Malveira vs Alverca B
1:2
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs Malveira
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malveira Compare

Top Goalscorer Dos Santos I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.3

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Morais F.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malveira 10 / 100
Alverca B 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malveira Alverca B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alverca B Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca B let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Malveira's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Alverca B has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Malveira VS Alverca B
0.63 Goals Scored 1.71
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.57
75% Over 1.5 43%
38% Over 2.5 43%
0% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Malveira

(Home)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 7

Alverca B

(Away)
27 Sept
Alverca B
5 : 0
Fazendense
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)