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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

CAF Champions League Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium, Pretoria
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the CAF Champions League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Mamelodi Sundowns have averaged 2.04 scored and 1.07 conceded recently, against Wiliete's 1.79 scored and 0.68 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.63) point toward Mamelodi Sundowns. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mamelodi Sundowns
20%
Draws
40%
Wiliete
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Wiliete come out ahead of Mamelodi Sundowns on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Wiliete arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Mamelodi Sundowns Clean Sheet 14%
Wiliete Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mamelodi Sundowns Wiliete
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 16 18
Draws 8 7
Losses 3 3
Goals Scored 2.04 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mamelodi Sundowns 31 / 100
Wiliete 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mamelodi Sundowns Wiliete

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mamelodi Sundowns scored in 89% of their last 27 outings.

Recent resilience: Mamelodi Sundowns stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Wiliete's defensive record shows goals conceded in 54% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mamelodi Sundowns VS Wiliete
2.25 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mamelodi Sundowns

(Home)
13 Oct
Richards Bay
1 : 4
Mamelodi Sundowns
10 Oct
Orlando Pirates
0 : 2
Mamelodi Sundowns
19 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
2 : 1
Al Ahli SC
12 Sept
Chippa Utd.
1 : 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
09 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
3 : 0
Siwelele
Page 1 of 6

Wiliete

(Away)
10 Oct
Kabuscorp
1 : 1
Wiliete
20 Sept
Wiliete
5 : 0
C.R.D. Libolo
13 Sept
Wiliete
2 : 0
FC Luanda
10 Sept
Foresters
0 : 1
Wiliete
06 Sept
Wiliete
4 : 0
Foresters
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Wiliete 5
Foresters 0
TBD -
Mamelodi Sundowns -
Scottland 1
Nsingizini Hotspurs 0
UD Songo 2
Petro Atletico 3
Mangasport 3
African Stars 3
La Cure Waves 1
Orlando Pirates 3
15 de Agosto 5
Fomboni 0
Mighty Wanderers FC 1
Simba 7
CFFA 3
Lijabatho 1
Gaborone Utd 2
Young Africans 3
Asswehly 4
KVZ 0
TBD -
Esperance Tunis -
Aigles du Congo 1
APR 3
Port 1
Zamalek 6
EL Merriekh Bentiu 4
Heegan 0
Mahia 1
Pyramids 7
Aiglons 0
Sidama Bunna 3
Aigle Noir 0
Al Hilal Omdurman 3
Star Sport Academy 1
Medina United 1
TBD -
Berkane -
Maghreb Fez 4
Rahimo 1
ASC Kara 2
ASEC Mimosas 3
Canchungo 0
Teungueth 2
Colombe 1
Stade Malien 0
Rangers International 3
Sobemap 2
Nigelec 0
MC Alger 5
San Pedro 3
Rivers United 3
Vipers 1
Nouadhibou 1
Saoura 2
Horoya 3
Al Merreikh 2
Power Dynamos 0
Medeama 1
Mazembe 4
Club Africain 3
Djoliba 2
Final
Wiliete -
Mamelodi Sundowns -
Scottland -
Petro Atletico -
African Stars 0
Orlando Pirates 0
15 de Agosto -
Simba -
CFFA 0
Young Africans 4
Asswehly -
Esperance Tunis -
APR 0
Zamalek 1
EL Merriekh Bentiu 0
Pyramids 1
Sidama Bunna -
Al Hilal Omdurman -
Star Sport Academy -
Berkane -
Maghreb Fez -
ASEC Mimosas -
Teungueth -
Colombe -
Rangers International -
MC Alger -
San Pedro -
Nouadhibou -
Horoya -
Al Merreikh -
Mazembe 0
Club Africain 0