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Manchego Ciudad Real vs Toledo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Manchego Ciudad Real host Toledo in the Tercera RFEF - Group 18. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Manchego Ciudad Real at 1.45 goals for, 0.67 against; Toledo at 1.66 for, 0.69 against. Head-to-head, Manchego Ciudad Real have won 1 to Toledo's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Apr 2, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.13) back Manchego Ciudad Real to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Manchego Ciudad Real
15%
Draws
34%
Toledo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manchego Ciudad Real

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Manchego Ciudad Real come out ahead of Toledo on wins alone.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 18 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Manchego Ciudad Real Clean Sheet 20%
Toledo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manchego Ciudad Real Toledo
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 20 18
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.45 1.66
Goals Conceded 0.67 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
1:0
Nov 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Manchego Ciudad Real vs Toledo
1:1
Apr 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
0:0
Nov 30, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Manchego Ciudad Real vs Toledo
1:0
Apr 16, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manchego Ciudad Real 31 / 100
Toledo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manchego Ciudad Real Toledo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manchego Ciudad Real Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manchego Ciudad Real has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Manchego Ciudad Real found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (33 games).

Toledo has conceded goals in 50% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Manchego Ciudad Real VS Toledo
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Manchego Ciudad Real

(Home)
04 Oct
Manchego Ciudad Real
1 : 0
UD Almansa
27 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
3 : 2
Marchamalo
20 Sept
Huracan de Balazote
0 : 1
Manchego Ciudad Real
12 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
2 : 0
Villacanas
05 Sept
La Solana
0 : 1
Manchego Ciudad Real
Page 1 of 7

Toledo

(Away)
03 Oct
Villacanas
1 : 2
Toledo
27 Sept
Toledo
4 : 0
La Solana
19 Sept
Noblejas
2 : 1
Toledo
12 Sept
Toledo
1 : 1
Villarrubia
06 Sept
Quintanar del Rey
2 : 4
Toledo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchego Ciudad Real 5 5 0 0 8:2 15
2 Villarrobledo 5 3 2 0 8:1 11
3 Illescas 5 3 2 0 7:3 11
4 Torrijos 5 3 2 0 6:2 11
5 Toledo 5 3 1 1 12:6 10
6 CD Villa 5 3 0 2 6:4 9
7 Marchamalo 5 2 2 1 10:7 8
8 CD Tarancon 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 UD Almansa 5 2 1 2 8:5 7
10 Villacanas 5 2 1 2 6:4 7
11 Noblejas 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
12 San Clemente 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
13 Socuellamos 5 0 4 1 3:5 4
14 La Solana 5 1 0 4 4:9 3
15 Villarrubia 5 0 3 2 3:9 3
16 CD Guadalajara B 5 0 2 3 6:12 2
17 Quintanar del Rey 5 0 2 3 5:11 2
18 Huracan de Balazote 5 0 0 5 4:14 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 6 (Promotion - Play Offs)