Sport Picks
Manchester City vs Newcastle Utd
England
EFL Cup 2025/2026 Etihad Stadium, Manchester 
Match Events
7'
7'
Marmoush O.
27'
27'
Nunes M.
29'
29'
Marmoush O.
AI Match Summary
Manchester City in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manchester City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Newcastle Utd haven't matched Manchester City's recent run of results.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Manchester City taking it.
- Manchester City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Manchester City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Manchester City have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Manchester City Clean Sheet 19%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Manchester City | Newcastle Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 21 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.1 | 1.53 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 7, 2026 FA Cup
Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City
1:3
Feb 21, 2026 Premier League
Manchester City vs Newcastle Utd
2:1
Feb 4, 2026 EFL Cup
Manchester City vs Newcastle Utd
3:1
Jan 13, 2026 EFL Cup
Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City
0:2
Nov 22, 2025 Premier League
Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Manchester City Compare
Top Goalscorer Marmoush O.
2 Goals Assists Leader Reijnders T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Newcastle Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer Elanga A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Manchester City 85 / 100
Newcastle Utd 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Manchester City Newcastle Utd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Manchester City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Manchester City's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Newcastle Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Solid form: Manchester City remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Manchester City VS Newcastle Utd
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Manchester City
(Home) 20 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 3 Sunderland
17 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 0 Norwich
13 Sept
Manchester United
0 : 1 Manchester City
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2 Manchester City
05 Sept
Manchester City
1 : 0 Coventry
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 3 Sunderland
17 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 0 Norwich
05 Sept
Manchester City
1 : 0 Coventry
23 Aug
Manchester City
2 : 1 Bournemouth
09 Aug
Manchester City
3 : 1 Atl. Madrid
Page 1 of 3
Newcastle Utd
(Away) 19 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 1 Hull City
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1 Newcastle Utd
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2 Bournemouth
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1 Newcastle Utd
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
08 Aug
Valencia
1 : 2 Newcastle Utd
29 Jul
Bristol City
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
