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Manfredonia vs Afragolese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Urain E.
90' Event
Gioielli F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Manfredonia and Afragolese finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Manfredonia
35%
Draws
28%
Afragolese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Manfredonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Manfredonia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Manfredonia's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 68%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manfredonia Afragolese
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 9 12
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Afragolese
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Manfredonia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manfredonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Urain E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Afragolese Compare

Top Goalscorer Gioielli F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manfredonia 59 / 100
Afragolese 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manfredonia Afragolese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manfredonia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Manfredonia scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Afragolese conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Manfredonia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Manfredonia VS Afragolese
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Manfredonia

(Home)
27 Sept
Real Forio 2014
1 : 2
Manfredonia
20 Sept
Manfredonia
3 : 0
Ebolitana
16 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 1
Manfredonia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2
Nocerina
06 Sept
San Felice Gladiator
2 : 1
Manfredonia
Page 1 of 6

Afragolese

(Away)
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)