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Manfredonia vs Ferrandina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Ceparano G.
62' Event
Ceparano G.

AI Match Summary

Manfredonia in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manfredonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Manfredonia
30%
Draws
23%
Ferrandina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Manfredonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Manfredonia lately — more wins on the board than Ferrandina.
  • Model gives Manfredonia a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 68%
Ferrandina Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manfredonia Ferrandina
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.07 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Ferrandina
2:0
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Ferrandina vs Manfredonia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manfredonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceparano G.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

Ferrandina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manfredonia 95 / 100
Ferrandina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manfredonia Ferrandina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manfredonia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manfredonia scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Ferrandina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Manfredonia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Manfredonia VS Ferrandina
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.67
63% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 33%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Manfredonia

(Home)
20 Sept
Manfredonia
3 : 0
Ebolitana
16 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 1
Manfredonia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2
Nocerina
06 Sept
San Felice Gladiator
2 : 1
Manfredonia
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
Page 1 of 6

Ferrandina

(Away)
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Citta di Fasano
2 : 0
Ferrandina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)