Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Manila Digger vs Dewa United

Asia Asia

AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 Rizal Memorial Stadium, Manila
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Nishioka K.
Assist: Gai P. O.
45'
Fatari B.
45'
Touray B.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Manila Digger advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Manila Digger
20%
Draws
42%
Dewa United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dewa United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Manila Digger come out ahead of Dewa United on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Manila Digger have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Manila Digger, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Manila Digger Clean Sheet 20%
Dewa United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manila Digger Dewa United
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 18 17
Draws 8 5
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 3.55 1.45
Goals Conceded 0.72 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Dewa United vs Manila Digger
2:2
Mar 5, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Manila Digger vs Dewa United
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manila Digger Compare

Top Goalscorer Nishioka K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Dewa United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manila Digger 32 / 100
Dewa United 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manila Digger Dewa United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manila Digger scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Dewa United conceded in 61% of 33 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Manila Digger has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Manila Digger VS Dewa United
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Manila Digger

(Home)
04 Sept
Manila Digger
5 : 1
Kasuka
31 Aug
Persib Bandung
1 : 0
Manila Digger
30 May
Manila Digger
1 : 1
Taguig
27 May
Kaya FC
0 : 3
Manila Digger
23 May
Manila Digger
1 : 1
Stallion
Page 1 of 6

Dewa United

(Away)
05 Sept
Persik Kediri
0 : 1
Dewa United
27 Aug
Dewa United
4 : 0
Brisbane Roar
22 May
Dewa United
0 : 1
Bali United
16 May
Persis Solo
1 : 0
Dewa United
08 May
PSBS Biak Numfor
0 : 5
Dewa United
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Al Ansar 0
Muras United 3
Al-Shabab 3
Al Kuwait 5
Svay Rieng 6
Phnom Penh Crown 2
Dewa United 2
Manila Digger 3
Semi-finals
Muras United 1
Al Kuwait 2
Svay Rieng 4
Manila Digger 1
Final
Al Kuwait 4
Svay Rieng 3