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Mansilles vs Arandina

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Menor J.
19' Event
Florin I. C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Mansilles
30%
Draws
33%
Arandina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mansilles

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Mansilles have won more games recently than Arandina.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Mansilles taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Mansilles Clean Sheet 68%
Arandina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mansilles Arandina
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 7
Draws 12 10
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Mansilles vs Arandina
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Arandina vs Mansilles
0:0
Mar 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Mansilles vs Arandina
0:2
Oct 19, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Arandina vs Mansilles
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mansilles Compare

Top Goalscorer Florin I. C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Arandina Compare

Top Goalscorer Menor J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mansilles 59 / 100
Arandina 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mansilles Arandina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mansilles Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arandina has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Mansilles found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Mansilles remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.25 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Mansilles VS Arandina
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mansilles

(Home)
20 Sept
Bembibre
0 : 2
Mansilles
12 Sept
Mansilles
1 : 1
Palencia CA
05 Sept
Turegano
1 : 2
Mansilles
10 May
Leonesa B
1 : 1
Mansilles
02 May
Mansilles
0 : 1
CD Mojados
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Arandina

(Away)
20 Sept
Salamanca CF UDS B
3 : 4
Arandina
12 Sept
Arandina
1 : 1
Almazan
05 Sept
Santa Marta Tormes
1 : 0
Arandina
10 May
Becerril
2 : 0
Arandina
02 May
Arandina
2 : 1
Mirandes B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Tordesillas 34 24 6 4 62:24 78
2 Guijuelo 34 21 7 6 54:26 70
3 Palencia CA 34 21 5 8 48:24 68
4 Palencia CF 34 20 4 10 59:39 64
5 Santa Marta Tormes 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
6 Mansilles 34 15 12 7 31:27 57
7 Almazan 34 12 12 10 49:38 48
8 Mirandes B 34 13 8 13 43:35 47
9 La Virgen 34 12 8 14 31:37 44
10 Villaralbo 34 11 9 14 29:37 42
11 Leonesa B 34 12 6 16 38:43 42
12 Arandina 34 9 10 15 32:46 37
13 Colegios Diocesanos 34 10 6 18 33:54 36
14 Bembibre 34 8 10 16 38:52 34
15 Unionistas de Salamanca B 34 6 13 15 32:43 31
16 CD Mojados 34 7 10 17 28:55 31
17 Becerril 34 7 8 19 41:60 29
18 Numancia B 34 6 6 22 26:56 24
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)