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Manta vs Macara

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Jocay
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Manta play Macara in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Manta averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Macara averaged 1.3 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. In past meetings, Manta won 1, Macara won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Manta and 0.94 for Macara. This points to a Macara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Manta
28%
Draws
45%
Macara
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Manta picked up more points recently compared to Macara.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Manta Clean Sheet 24%
Macara Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manta Macara
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 8 16
Draws 5 9
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.82 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.39 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga Pro
Manta vs Macara
0:1
Sep 27, 2025 Liga Pro
Manta vs Macara
1:3
May 31, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Manta
2:2
Oct 18, 2023 Serie B
Macara vs Manta
1:3
Aug 30, 2023 Serie B
Manta vs Macara
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manta 29 / 100
Macara 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manta Macara

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Macara or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Manta attacking → ← attacking Macara

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manta scored in 54% of their last 28 games.

Macara let in goals in 45% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Manta went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Macara lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 57
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3Aucas1785420:1629
4LDU Quito1783619:1427
5Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
6U. Catolica1775528:1726
7Tecnico U.1772819:1723
8Macara1765616:1823
9Emelec1765614:1723
10Orense1764722:2422
11Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
12Leones del Norte1755718:1920
13Guayaquil City1754814:2019
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312