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Manta vs Macara

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Jocay
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Manta play Macara in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Manta averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Macara averaged 1.07 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Manta won 1, Macara won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Manta and 0.94 for Macara. This points to a Macara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Manta
30%
Draws
41%
Macara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Manta picked up more points recently compared to Macara.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Manta Clean Sheet 24%
Macara Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manta Macara
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.83 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.28 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga Pro
Manta vs Macara
0:1
Sep 27, 2025 Liga Pro
Manta vs Macara
1:3
May 31, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Manta
2:2
Oct 18, 2023 Serie B
Macara vs Manta
1:3
Aug 30, 2023 Serie B
Manta vs Macara
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manta 31 / 100
Macara 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manta Macara

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Macara or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +22.1%
3.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Manta attacking → ← attacking Macara

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manta scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Macara let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Manta went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Macara lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 45
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle16121332:1837
2LDU Quito1683519:1327
3Dep. Cuenca1683518:1727
4U. Catolica1675426:1426
5Barcelona SC1675418:1326
6Aucas1675419:1626
7Orense1664621:2222
8Emelec1664613:1622
9Tecnico U.1662817:1620
10Macara1655615:1820
11Guayaquil City1654714:1919
12Mushuc Runa1646619:2118
13Leones del Norte1645715:1817
14Libertad1645716:2217
15Delfin164488:1516
16Manta1633107:1912