Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Manukau United vs Eastern Suburbs

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Echague H.
33' Event
Reid J.
63' Event
Robb L.

AI Match Summary

Eastern Suburbs in this Chatham Cup 2025 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Manukau United
15%
Draws
57%
Eastern Suburbs
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Eastern Suburbs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Eastern Suburbs have won more games recently than Manukau United.
  • Eastern Suburbs are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Eastern Suburbs arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Eastern Suburbs, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Manukau United Clean Sheet 10%
Eastern Suburbs Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manukau United Eastern Suburbs
Matches Played 5 29
Wins 1 12
Draws 0 5
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 1.2 1.66
Goals Conceded 2.4 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 Chatham Cup
Manukau United vs Eastern Suburbs
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manukau United Compare

Top Goalscorer Robb L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Eastern Suburbs Compare

Top Goalscorer Echague H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Reid J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manukau United 22 / 100
Eastern Suburbs 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manukau United Eastern Suburbs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Eastern Suburbs Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manukau United found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (5 games).

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Eastern Suburbs has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Eastern Suburbs's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Manukau United VS Eastern Suburbs
1 Goals Scored 3
3 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 75%
100% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Manukau United

(Home)
05 Jul
Manukau United
1 : 3
Eastern Suburbs
02 Apr
Auckland City
3 : 1
Manukau United
06 Jul
Bay Olympic
3 : 0
Manukau United
04 Aug
Manukau United
1 : 2
Cashmere Technical
21 Jul
Manukau United
3 : 1
Mt Albert Ponsonby

Eastern Suburbs

(Away)
16 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 2
Wellington Olympic
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2
Eastern Suburbs
05 Jul
Manukau United
1 : 3
Eastern Suburbs
24 Nov
Eastern Suburbs
0 : 2
Western Suburbs
16 Nov
Cashmere Technical
1 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 2
Western Springs 1
Manukau United 1
Eastern Suburbs 3
Western Suburbs 4
Palmerston North United FC 1
Napier City 2
Wellington Olympic 3
Wanaka FC 0
Christchurch 3
Auckland United 7
Melville 1
Dunedin City Royals 0
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
Birkenhead 7
Waiheke United 0
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC 0
Eastern Suburbs 2
Western Suburbs 2
Wellington Olympic 3
Christchurch 2
Auckland United 4
Nelson Suburbs FC 2
Birkenhead 1
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs 1
Wellington Olympic 2
Auckland United 3
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Final
Wellington Olympic 4
Auckland United 2