Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group B 2014/2015

Castellana

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

MapelloBonate play Castellana in the Serie D - Group B 2014/2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, MapelloBonate averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.74 conceded. Castellana averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, MapelloBonate won 2, Castellana won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 21, 2015 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for MapelloBonate and 1.13 for Castellana. This points to a Castellana double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

MapelloBonate

26%

Draws

42%

Castellana

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Castellana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

MapelloBonate picked up more points recently compared to Castellana.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

MapelloBonate Clean Sheet 21%

Castellana Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	MapelloBonate	Castellana
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	4	7
Draws	9	7
Losses	18	16
Goals Scored	0.97	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.74	1.6

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2015 Serie D - Group B

MapelloBonate vs Castellana

Possession: 43% - 53% Cards: 3 - 1

2:2

Sep 17, 2014 Serie D - Group B

Castellana vs MapelloBonate

Possession: 44% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

0:2

Feb 9, 2014 Serie D - Group B

Castellana vs MapelloBonate

Possession: 48% - 47% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

Sep 29, 2013 Serie D - Group B

MapelloBonate vs Castellana

Possession: 40% - 51% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MapelloBonate 33 / 100

Castellana 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

MapelloBonate Castellana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Castellana or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

MapelloBonate attacking → ← attacking Castellana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MapelloBonate scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Castellana let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

MapelloBonate went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Castellana lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 28

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Castiglione	36	22	8	6	54:26	74
2	Lecco	36	19	9	8	65:42	66
3	Seregno Calcio	36	20	5	11	64:37	65
4	Ciserano	36	17	9	10	53:39	60
5	Virtus Verona	36	15	14	7	58:34	59
6	Pergolettese	36	15	10	11	46:44	55
7	Olginatese	36	15	9	12	44:34	54
8	Ponte San Pietro	36	14	10	12	50:42	52
9	Ciliverghe Mazzano	36	14	9	13	37:40	51
10	Sondrio	36	15	6	15	46:50	51
11	Aurora Seriate	36	14	8	14	42:43	50
12	Inveruno	36	13	10	13	47:48	49
13	Villafranca	36	12	11	13	44:49	47
14	MapelloBonate	36	12	11	13	36:48	47
15	Pro Sesto	36	13	8	15	38:41	47
16	Caravaggio	36	11	8	17	37:42	41
17	Folgore Caratese	36	7	16	13	34:40	37
18	Castellana	36	7	9	20	36:61	30
19	Montichiari	36	1	2	33	26:97	5