Sport Picks
Match Events
33'
33'
dos Santos Ribeiro M.
50'
50'
Carlos Maia
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Castanhal in this Paraense 2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castanhal.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
15%
73%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castanhal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Castanhal lately — more wins on the board than Marajo.
- Win probability leans Castanhal's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Paraense 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Marajo Clean Sheet 15%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marajo | Castanhal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 19 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.83 | 1.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 18, 2024 Paraense
Marajo vs Castanhal
0:2
Feb 5, 2022 Paraense
Marajo vs Castanhal
1:0
Apr 6, 2021 Paraense
Marajo vs Castanhal
2:2
Aug 1, 2020 Paraense
Castanhal vs Marajo
2:1
Feb 16, 2020 Paraense
Marajo vs Castanhal
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marajo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
Castanhal Compare
Top Goalscorer dos Santos Ribeiro M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marajo 10 / 100
Castanhal 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marajo Castanhal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castanhal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Castanhal conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Castanhal lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Marajo found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).
Scoring Trends
Marajo VS Castanhal
0.63 Goals Scored 0.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 25%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Marajo
(Home) 24 May
Marajo
1 : 2 Urumajo
13 May
Paragominas
1 : 1 Marajo
09 May
Urumajo
3 : 0 Marajo
25 Apr
Marajo
0 : 5 Paragominas
12 Jul
Canaa
3 : 0 Marajo
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24 May
Marajo
1 : 2 Urumajo
25 Apr
Marajo
0 : 5 Paragominas
05 Jul
Marajo
0 : 2 Canaa
23 Jun
Marajo
1 : 1 Izabelense
15 Jun
Marajo
3 : 1 Sao Raimundo PA
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Castanhal
(Away) 11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4 Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1 Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0 Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1 Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0 Castanhal
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22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0 Castanhal
19 Feb
Capitao Poco
0 : 1 Castanhal
15 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 0 Castanhal
04 Feb
Sao Raimundo PA
0 : 1 Castanhal
25 Jan
Cameta
0 : 0 Castanhal
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paysandu PA | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12:2 | 20 |
| 2 | Tuna Luso | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17:8 | 16 |
| 3 | Remo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14:6 | 14 |
| 4 | Caete | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:9 | 12 |
| 5 | Aguia De Maraba | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5:7 | 12 |
| 6 | Santa Rosa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | 11 |
| 7 | Sao Francisco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 8 | Bragantino PA | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7:8 | 9 |
| 9 | Cameta | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7:9 | 9 |
| 10 | Castanhal | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 11 | Marajo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 12 | Canaa | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Promotion - Paraense 2024 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aguia De Maraba | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5:7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bragantino PA | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7:8 | 9 |
| 3 | Castanhal | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 4 | Canaa | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Promotion - Paraense 2024 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14:6 | 14 |
| 2 | Caete | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:9 | 12 |
| 3 | Santa Rosa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | 11 |
| 4 | Cameta | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7:9 | 9 |
Promotion - Paraense 2024 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paysandu PA | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12:2 | 20 |
| 2 | Tuna Luso | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17:8 | 16 |
| 3 | Sao Francisco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 4 | Marajo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:12 | 5 |
Promotion - Paraense 2024 (Play Offs)
