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Maranhao vs Guarani

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Raphael
36'
Lucca
61'
Sub
Mirandinha In: Carlos Eduardo
Out: Mirandinha

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie C matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Maranhao
35%
Draws
25%
Guarani
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Guarani have won more games recently than Maranhao.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 68%
Guarani Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maranhao Guarani
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.76 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Serie C
Maranhao vs Guarani
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Luis Gustavo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Herbert
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maranhao 41 / 100
Guarani 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maranhao Guarani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Maranhao has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Maranhao's goal record stands at 45% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Maranhao VS Guarani
0.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
13% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maranhao

(Home)
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Maranhao
2 : 1
Ypiranga FC
04 Jul
Maranhao
0 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
28 Jun
Ituano
0 : 0
Maranhao
Page 1 of 6

Guarani

(Away)
10 Aug
Anapolis
2 : 1
Guarani
27 Jul
Guarani
3 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
12 Jul
Paysandu PA
3 : 2
Guarani
04 Jul
Guarani
0 : 0
Floresta EC
28 Jun
Figueirense
1 : 1
Guarani
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Internacional de Limeira 16 8 4 4 20:17 28
2 Brusque 16 8 3 5 22:17 27
3 Botafogo PB 16 8 2 6 23:18 26
4 Paysandu PA 16 8 2 6 25:22 26
5 Guarani 16 7 5 4 29:17 26
6 Santa Cruz 16 7 4 5 17:13 25
7 Ypiranga FC 16 7 3 6 22:20 24
8 SER Caxias do Sul 16 6 6 4 16:12 24
9 Ferroviaria 16 6 6 4 17:14 24
10 Amazonas 16 7 2 7 18:20 23
11 Maringa FC 16 6 5 5 28:28 23
12 Ituano 16 6 4 6 18:17 22
13 Floresta EC 16 5 6 5 17:19 21
14 Maranhao 16 5 6 5 13:15 21
15 Figueirense 16 5 6 5 15:20 21
16 Volta Redonda 16 5 3 8 11:21 18
17 Itabaiana 16 4 5 7 13:20 17
18 Anapolis 16 4 3 9 15:20 15
19 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 16 3 6 7 17:19 15
20 Confianca 16 3 3 10 10:17 12
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)