Sport Picks
Marathon vs Alianza FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
North & Central America
CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula 
Match Events
10'
10'
Menjivar L.
16'
16'
Figueroa H.
32'
32'
Moreno Y.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Alianza FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Marathon lately — more wins on the board than Alianza FC.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Marathon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Alianza FC, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Marathon Clean Sheet 20%
Alianza FC Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marathon | Alianza FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 25 |
| Wins | 12 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.18 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.96 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.48 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 20, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Marathon vs Alianza FC
0:1
Aug 28, 2024 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Marathon vs Alianza FC
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marathon Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74
Alianza FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Mier M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marathon 36 / 100
Alianza FC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marathon Alianza FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alianza FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Marathon scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Defensive concern: Alianza FC conceded in 72% of 25 recent games.
Solid form: Marathon remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Games between these two average 1.00 goals.
Scoring Trends
Marathon VS Alianza FC
1.57 Goals Scored 1.25
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.38
57% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 63%
57% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Marathon
(Home) 21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2 Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1 Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0 Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2 Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0 Estrella
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0 Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2 Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0 Estrella
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0 Esteli
23 Aug
Marathon
1 : 1 Real Espana
Page 1 of 3
Alianza FC
(Away) 04 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 2 Luis Angel Firpo
01 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 1 Platense Municipal
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1 Inca Aruba
24 Sept
Alianza FC
2 : 2 Fuerte San Francisco
20 Sept
Alianza FC
3 : 2 Municipal Limeno
Page 1 of 5
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0 Alianza FC
06 Sept
Aguila
2 : 2 Alianza FC
26 Aug
Platense Municipal
2 : 2 Alianza FC
23 Aug
Metapan
2 : 0 Alianza FC
20 Aug
Marathon
0 : 1 Alianza FC
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alajuelense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 9 |
| 2 | Luis Angel Firpo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Plaza Amador | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:10 | 6 |
| 4 | Xelaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 5 | Diriangen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:11 | 3 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 9 |
| 2 | Marathon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:1 | 7 |
| 3 | Herediano | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 | Esteli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 5 | Antigua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:9 | 0 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 12 |
| 2 | Saprissa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportivo Mixco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:6 | 6 |
| 4 | Alianza | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 5 | UMECIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:9 | 0 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cartagines | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:2 | 8 |
| 2 | Motagua | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:2 | 8 |
| 3 | Municipal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 4 | FAS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 5 | Verdes | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:14 | 0 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
