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Marathon vs Olancho - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Ramirez Arauz M. R.
45'
Gomez H.
46'
Sub
Bodden K. In: Arriaga Chavez J. A.
Out: Bodden K.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Marathon and Olancho finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Olancho.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Marathon
35%
Draws
24%
Olancho
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Marathon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Marathon taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Marathon Clean Sheet 20%
Olancho Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Olancho
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 10
Draws 7 12
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.17 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olancho
0:2
Feb 21, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Marathon
1:1
Dec 28, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olancho
2:1
Dec 12, 2025 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Marathon
0:3
Nov 1, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olancho
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Olancho Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez Arauz M. R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zuniga Bernardez C. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 36 / 100
Olancho 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Olancho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marathon's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Olancho let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Marathon has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Olancho
2.13 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
Page 1 of 6

Olancho

(Away)
19 Sept
Genesis FC
0 : 0
Olancho
12 Sept
Olancho
1 : 1
Real Espana
05 Sept
CD Choloma
0 : 0
Olancho
30 Aug
Motagua
2 : 1
Olancho
23 Aug
Olancho
1 : 1
Olimpia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)