Sport Picks
Marbelli vs Atletico de Porcuna
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 
Match Events
88'
88'
Pumareta A.
AI Match Summary
Marbelli in this Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marbelli.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
15%
27%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marbelli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Atletico de Porcuna at 1.19 per game, Marbelli at 1.17.
- Win probability leans Marbelli's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 68%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marbelli | Atletico de Porcuna |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 13 | 13 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 8 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.19 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.8 | 1.42 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Atletico de Porcuna
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Marbelli
1:0
Feb 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Marbelli
1:1
Sep 29, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marbelli Compare
Top Goalscorer Pumareta A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Atletico de Porcuna Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marbelli 95 / 100
Atletico de Porcuna 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marbelli Atletico de Porcuna
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marbelli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Marbelli scored in 80% of their last 30 games.
Marbelli has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Atletico de Porcuna's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Marbelli VS Atletico de Porcuna
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Marbelli
(Home) 27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0 Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Huetor Vega
1 : 3 Marbelli
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1 Marbelli
10 May
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
0 : 2 Marbelli
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0 Torre del Mar
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
03 May
Marbelli
0 : 1 Granada CF B
19 Apr
Marbelli
2 : 1 Huetor Tajar
05 Apr
Marbelli
1 : 2 Martos
Page 1 of 4
Atletico de Porcuna
(Away) 27 Sept
Almeria B
4 : 0 Atletico de Porcuna
20 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 1 Granada CF B
12 Sept
Malaga B
6 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
06 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
1 : 0 Cantoria
10 May
Motril
2 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Almeria B
4 : 0 Atletico de Porcuna
12 Sept
Malaga B
6 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
10 May
Motril
2 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2 Atletico de Porcuna
12 Apr
CD Alhaurino
3 : 0 Atletico de Porcuna
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 46:24 | 66 |
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55:29 | 65 |
| 3 | Torre del Mar | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 37:26 | 55 |
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38:29 | 54 |
| 5 | Churriana de la Vega | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 32:40 | 52 |
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:28 | 51 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 39:38 | 50 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 39:37 | 49 |
| 9 | Atletico de Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41:39 | 46 |
| 10 | Huetor Vega | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 43:42 | 45 |
| 11 | Granada CF B | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 12 | CD Alhaurino | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 41:41 | 43 |
| 13 | Melilla B | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 30:32 | 39 |
| 14 | Mancha | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30:38 | 37 |
| 15 | Huetor Tajar | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 40:44 | 37 |
| 16 | Martos | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:48 | 37 |
| 17 | CD Torreperogil | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 24:45 | 33 |
| 18 | El Palo | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 28:53 | 27 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
