Sport Picks
Match Events
18'
18'
Manzano R.
89'
89'
Corral Tapia M.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Marbelli and El Palo finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
61%
20%
19%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marbelli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Marbelli come out ahead of El Palo on wins alone.
- 61% — that's where the model lands on Marbelli taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 68%
El Palo Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marbelli | El Palo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 6 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.79 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.21 | 0.73 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs El Palo
1:1
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Marbelli
2:2
Mar 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs El Palo
2:0
Oct 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Marbelli
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marbelli Compare
Top Goalscorer Corral Tapia M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6
El Palo Compare
Top Goalscorer Manzano R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.41
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marbelli 95 / 100
El Palo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marbelli El Palo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marbelli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
El Palo let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
Marbelli has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Attacking prowess: Marbelli scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Marbelli VS El Palo
1 Goals Scored 0.71
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.43
63% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 29%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Marbelli
(Home) 27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0 Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Huetor Vega
1 : 3 Marbelli
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1 Marbelli
10 May
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
0 : 2 Marbelli
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0 Torre del Mar
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
03 May
Marbelli
0 : 1 Granada CF B
19 Apr
Marbelli
2 : 1 Huetor Tajar
05 Apr
Marbelli
1 : 2 Martos
Page 1 of 3
El Palo
(Away) 10 May
El Palo
0 : 2 Churriana de la Vega
03 May
CD Torreperogil
0 : 2 El Palo
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2 Atletico de Porcuna
19 Apr
Torre del Mar
1 : 1 El Palo
12 Apr
El Palo
0 : 1 Motril
Page 1 of 6
03 May
CD Torreperogil
0 : 2 El Palo
19 Apr
Torre del Mar
1 : 1 El Palo
29 Mar
CD Alhaurino
2 : 1 El Palo
15 Mar
Granada CF B
1 : 0 El Palo
01 Mar
Huetor Tajar
2 : 1 El Palo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 46:24 | 66 |
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55:29 | 65 |
| 3 | Torre del Mar | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 37:26 | 55 |
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38:29 | 54 |
| 5 | Churriana de la Vega | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 32:40 | 52 |
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:28 | 51 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 39:38 | 50 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 39:37 | 49 |
| 9 | Atletico de Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41:39 | 46 |
| 10 | Huetor Vega | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 43:42 | 45 |
| 11 | Granada CF B | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 12 | CD Alhaurino | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 41:41 | 43 |
| 13 | Melilla B | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 30:32 | 39 |
| 14 | Mancha | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30:38 | 37 |
| 15 | Huetor Tajar | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 40:44 | 37 |
| 16 | Martos | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:48 | 37 |
| 17 | CD Torreperogil | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 24:45 | 33 |
| 18 | El Palo | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 28:53 | 27 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
