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Marchamalo vs Manchego Ciudad Real

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Marchamalo play Manchego Ciudad Real in the Tercera RFEF - Group 18. It looks like a close match. Recently, Marchamalo averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Manchego Ciudad Real averaged 1.52 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. In past meetings, Marchamalo won 1, Manchego Ciudad Real won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.63 for Marchamalo and 1.25 for Manchego Ciudad Real. This points to a Manchego Ciudad Real double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Marchamalo
22%
Draws
49%
Manchego Ciudad Real
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Manchego Ciudad Real

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Marchamalo picked up more points recently compared to Manchego Ciudad Real.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.63 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 19%
Manchego Ciudad Real Clean Sheet 21%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marchamalo Manchego Ciudad Real
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 17
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
2:2
Oct 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Manchego Ciudad Real vs Marchamalo
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Manchego Ciudad Real vs Marchamalo
2:0
Apr 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Manchego Ciudad Real vs Marchamalo
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marchamalo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rubio A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Manchego Ciudad Real Compare

Top Goalscorer Flores D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marchamalo 30 / 100
Manchego Ciudad Real 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marchamalo Manchego Ciudad Real

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Manchego Ciudad Real or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Marchamalo attacking → ← attacking Manchego Ciudad Real

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marchamalo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Manchego Ciudad Real let in goals in 55% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Marchamalo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Manchego Ciudad Real lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 59
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Puertollano C.F.34228454:2174
2CD Tarancon34227562:2573
3Toledo341911455:1768
4Albacete B341713449:1764
5Manchego Ciudad Real34187952:2961
6Villarrubia341581142:3553
7Villacanas3412121029:2648
8San Clemente3412111136:4447
9CD Guadalajara B3411101330:3743
10Villarrobledo3410131130:3643
11Huracan de Balazote341251733:4541
12Illescas348131321:3237
13Marchamalo341071738:4737
14La Solana348111526:3835
15Azuqueca347131434:3934
16CD Pedroneras347121528:4333
17Sonseca34572228:6922
18Cazalegas34462417:6418