Sport Picks
Marchamalo vs Toledo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 
Match Events
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Molina L.
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Molina L.
AI Match Summary
Toledo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toledo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Toledo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Toledo lately — more wins on the board than Marchamalo.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Toledo have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 23%
Toledo Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marchamalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 15 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 0.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Toledo
0:2
Sep 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Marchamalo
3:1
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Toledo
0:1
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Marchamalo
2:0
Feb 25, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Toledo
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marchamalo Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Toledo Compare
Top Goalscorer Molina L.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marchamalo 37 / 100
Toledo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marchamalo Toledo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Toledo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Marchamalo's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.
Marchamalo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Toledo has conceded goals in 52% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Marchamalo VS Toledo
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Marchamalo
(Home) 03 Oct
Marchamalo
2 : 2 CD Tarancon
27 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
3 : 2 Marchamalo
20 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 2 CD Guadalajara B
13 Sept
Huracan de Balazote
0 : 2 Marchamalo
05 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 0 CD Villa
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Marchamalo
2 : 2 CD Tarancon
20 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 2 CD Guadalajara B
05 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 0 CD Villa
30 Aug
Marchamalo
2 : 0 Union Adarve
18 Aug
Marchamalo
1 : 0 Guadalajara
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Toledo
(Away) 03 Oct
Villacanas
1 : 2 Toledo
27 Sept
Toledo
4 : 0 La Solana
19 Sept
Noblejas
2 : 1 Toledo
12 Sept
Toledo
1 : 1 Villarrubia
06 Sept
Quintanar del Rey
2 : 4 Toledo
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03 Oct
Villacanas
1 : 2 Toledo
19 Sept
Noblejas
2 : 1 Toledo
06 Sept
Quintanar del Rey
2 : 4 Toledo
17 May
Albacete B
0 : 0 Toledo
10 May
CD Pedroneras
1 : 0 Toledo
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puertollano C.F. | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 54:21 | 74 |
| 2 | CD Tarancon | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 62:25 | 73 |
| 3 | Toledo | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 55:17 | 68 |
| 4 | Albacete B | 34 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 49:17 | 64 |
| 5 | Manchego Ciudad Real | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:29 | 61 |
| 6 | Villarrubia | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 42:35 | 53 |
| 7 | Villacanas | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 29:26 | 48 |
| 8 | San Clemente | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 36:44 | 47 |
| 9 | CD Guadalajara B | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 30:37 | 43 |
| 10 | Villarrobledo | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 30:36 | 43 |
| 11 | Huracan de Balazote | 34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 33:45 | 41 |
| 12 | Illescas | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 21:32 | 37 |
| 13 | Marchamalo | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 38:47 | 37 |
| 14 | La Solana | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 26:38 | 35 |
| 15 | Azuqueca | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 34:39 | 34 |
| 16 | CD Pedroneras | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 28:43 | 33 |
| 17 | Sonseca | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 28:69 | 22 |
| 18 | Cazalegas | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 17:64 | 18 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
