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Marchamalo vs Villacanas

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Rubio A.

AI Match Summary

Marchamalo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marchamalo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Marchamalo
30%
Draws
18%
Villacanas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marchamalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marchamalo lately — more wins on the board than Villacanas.
  • Marchamalo are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 68%
Villacanas Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marchamalo Villacanas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 4 11
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.1 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.2 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Villacanas
1:0
Nov 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villacanas vs Marchamalo
0:0
Mar 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villacanas vs Marchamalo
1:0
Nov 9, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Villacanas
2:0
Mar 28, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villacanas vs Marchamalo
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marchamalo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rubio A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Villacanas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marchamalo 77 / 100
Villacanas 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marchamalo Villacanas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marchamalo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marchamalo scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Villacanas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Marchamalo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Marchamalo VS Villacanas
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Marchamalo

(Home)
18 Aug
Marchamalo
1 : 0
Guadalajara
15 Aug
Pozuelo de Alarcon
0 : 1
Marchamalo
12 Aug
CD Daganzo
0 : 2
Marchamalo
10 May
Sonseca
1 : 0
Marchamalo
03 May
Marchamalo
0 : 4
Azuqueca
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Villacanas

(Away)
06 Aug
Villacanas
0 : 3
CF Talavera
09 May
Villacanas
0 : 0
Villarrobledo
03 May
Albacete B
1 : 1
Villacanas
25 Apr
Villacanas
1 : 1
La Solana
18 Apr
Toledo
4 : 0
Villacanas
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Puertollano C.F. 34 22 8 4 54:21 74
2 CD Tarancon 34 22 7 5 62:25 73
3 Toledo 34 19 11 4 55:17 68
4 Albacete B 34 17 13 4 49:17 64
5 Manchego Ciudad Real 34 18 7 9 52:29 61
6 Villarrubia 34 15 8 11 42:35 53
7 Villacanas 34 12 12 10 29:26 48
8 San Clemente 34 12 11 11 36:44 47
9 CD Guadalajara B 34 11 10 13 30:37 43
10 Villarrobledo 34 10 13 11 30:36 43
11 Huracan de Balazote 34 12 5 17 33:45 41
12 Illescas 34 8 13 13 21:32 37
13 Marchamalo 34 10 7 17 38:47 37
14 La Solana 34 8 11 15 26:38 35
15 Azuqueca 34 7 13 14 34:39 34
16 CD Pedroneras 34 7 12 15 28:43 33
17 Sonseca 34 5 7 22 28:69 22
18 Cazalegas 34 4 6 24 17:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)