Sport Picks
Match Events
13'
13'
Claudinho
45'
45'
Mendes J.
49'
49'
Garrinsha
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-2. This leg finished 4-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marcilio Dias
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Marcilio Dias lately — more wins on the board than Joinville.
- Marcilio Dias are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- Marcilio Dias have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Marcilio Dias, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Marcilio Dias have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 68%
Joinville Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marcilio Dias | Joinville |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 32 |
| Wins | 13 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.09 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Marcilio Dias vs Joinville
4:2
Mar 6, 2026 Catarinense
Marcilio Dias vs Joinville
2:0
Feb 3, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Marcilio Dias
2:4
Jul 6, 2025 Serie D
Joinville vs Marcilio Dias
1:1
May 10, 2025 Serie D
Marcilio Dias vs Joinville
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marcilio Dias Compare
Top Goalscorer Claudinho
1 Goals Assists Leader Mendes J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Joinville Compare
Top Goalscorer Yann Rolim
1 Goals Assists Leader Kennedy
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marcilio Dias 68 / 100
Joinville 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marcilio Dias Joinville
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marcilio Dias Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Marcilio Dias scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.
Joinville let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.
Marcilio Dias has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Marcilio Dias VS Joinville
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Marcilio Dias
(Home) 19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5 Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
11 Jul
Portuguesa
2 : 0 Marcilio Dias
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
04 Jul
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1 Portuguesa
28 Jun
Marcilio Dias
2 : 1 FC Cascavel
01 Jun
Marcilio Dias
0 : 1 Azuriz
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Joinville
(Away) 19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4 Joinville
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0 Blumenau
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
07 Jun
Sao Luiz
3 : 1 Joinville
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4 Joinville
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
07 Jun
Sao Luiz
3 : 1 Joinville
16 May
Santa Catarina
1 : 0 Joinville
10 May
FC Cascavel
1 : 0 Joinville
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcilio Dias | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:8 | 9 |
| 2 | Santa Catarina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Hercilio Luz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:7 | 6 |
| 4 | Joinville | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 5 | Figueirense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 6 | CA Metropolitano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:9 | 3 |
| 7 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 9 | Nacao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)
