Sport Picks
Marcilio Dias vs Portuguesa
Brazil
Serie D Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz 
AI Match Summary
Marcilio Dias play Portuguesa in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Marcilio Dias averaged 1.24 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Portuguesa averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Marcilio Dias won 2, Portuguesa won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 12, 2025 ended 0-2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Marcilio Dias and 1.13 for Portuguesa. This points to a Portuguesa double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Marcilio Dias picked up more points recently compared to Portuguesa.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.13 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marcilio Dias | Portuguesa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 16 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 8 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marcilio Dias Compare
Portuguesa Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Marcilio Dias scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
Portuguesa let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Marcilio Dias went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Portuguesa lost 0 of their last 5 games.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics