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Stadium Background

Mardin 1969 vs F. Karagumruk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkey Turkey

1. Lig 21 Kasım Stadyumu, Mardin
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mardin 1969 host F. Karagumruk in the 1. Lig. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Mardin 1969 have averaged 1.46 scored and 0.66 conceded recently, against F. Karagumruk's 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.06, favoring Mardin 1969. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Mardin 1969
35%
Draws
32%
F. Karagumruk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mardin 1969 come out ahead of F. Karagumruk on wins alone.
  • Model gives Mardin 1969 a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular 1. Lig form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Mardin 1969 Clean Sheet 20%
F. Karagumruk Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mardin 1969 F. Karagumruk
Matches Played 35 28
Wins 19 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.46 1.18
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mardin 1969 36 / 100
F. Karagumruk 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mardin 1969 F. Karagumruk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mardin 1969 scored in 66% of their last 35 games.

Defensive concern: F. Karagumruk conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Mardin 1969 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: F. Karagumruk registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mardin 1969 VS F. Karagumruk
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mardin 1969

(Home)
20 Sept
Mardin 1969
0 : 1
Kayserispor
13 Sept
Igdir FK
1 : 0
Mardin 1969
07 Sept
Mardin 1969
1 : 0
Bodrumspor
02 Sept
Sivasspor
2 : 2
Mardin 1969
29 Aug
Mardin 1969
1 : 1
Vanspor FK
Page 1 of 7

F. Karagumruk

(Away)
03 Oct
Kasimpasa
2 : 1
F. Karagumruk
19 Sept
Erokspor
0 : 2
F. Karagumruk
13 Sept
F. Karagumruk
1 : 1
Manisa FK
06 Sept
Batman Petrolspor
4 : 3
F. Karagumruk
02 Sept
F. Karagumruk
1 : 1
Kayserispor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kayserispor 8 6 1 1 15:3 19
2 Bursaspor 8 6 1 1 16:7 19
3 Keciorengucu 9 4 4 1 19:10 16
4 Igdir FK 8 5 1 2 12:7 16
5 Batman Petrolspor 8 5 1 2 15:13 16
6 Antalyaspor 9 5 0 4 15:13 15
7 Sariyer 9 4 3 2 12:10 15
8 Bandirmaspor 9 3 4 2 14:5 13
9 Mardin 1969 8 3 3 2 9:5 12
10 F. Karagumruk 8 3 3 2 12:11 12
11 Sivasspor 9 2 5 2 13:12 11
12 Muglaspor 8 2 5 1 8:7 11
13 Pendikspor 9 2 4 3 11:17 10
14 Manisa FK 8 2 3 3 12:12 9
15 Bodrumspor 9 1 5 3 7:8 8
16 Umraniyespor 9 1 4 4 7:10 7
17 Erokspor 8 0 5 3 4:10 5
18 Istanbulspor AS 8 1 2 5 7:19 5
19 Vanspor FK 9 1 3 5 8:19 4
20 Boluspor 9 0 1 8 3:21 1
Promotion - Super Lig 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs)