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Marica vs Resende

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Vitinho
81' Event
Pablo Thomaz
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Marica
30%
Draws
23%
Resende
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Resende at 1.27 per game, Marica at 1.
  • Model gives Marica a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Marica, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Marica Clean Sheet 68%
Resende Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marica Resende
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Carioca 2
Marica vs Resende
1:1
Jul 11, 2026 Carioca 2
Resende vs Marica
1:0
Apr 29, 2026 Carioca 2
Resende vs Marica
4:0
Jul 13, 2024 Carioca 2
Marica vs Resende
1:0
Jul 26, 2023 Carioca 2
Resende vs Marica
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marica Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Resende Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marica 50 / 100
Resende 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marica Resende

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marica found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Resende conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Marica went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marica VS Resende
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marica

(Home)
12 Aug
Boavista
3 : 0
Marica
05 Aug
Marica
1 : 0
Boavista
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
18 Jul
Marica
1 : 1
Resende
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
Page 1 of 6

Resende

(Away)
01 Aug
Americano
2 : 0
Resende
25 Jul
Resende
1 : 0
Americano
22 Jul
Sampaio Correa FE
2 : 0
Resende
18 Jul
Marica
1 : 1
Resende
15 Jul
Resende
0 : 1
Sampaio Correa FE
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Americano 4
America RJ 1
Marica 1
Resende 2
Final
Americano 2
Resende 1