Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marica vs Sao Goncalo

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Marica play Sao Goncalo in the Carioca 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Marica averaged 0.96 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Sao Goncalo averaged 1.07 goals scored and 0.81 conceded. In past meetings, Marica won 2, Sao Goncalo won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 13, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Marica and 1.06 for Sao Goncalo. This points to a Marica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Marica
26%
Draws
32%
Sao Goncalo
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Marica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Marica picked up more points recently compared to Sao Goncalo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Marica Clean Sheet 22%
Sao Goncalo Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 53%
Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marica Sao Goncalo
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 0.96 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Carioca 2
Marica vs Sao Goncalo
1:0
Nov 4, 2020 Carioca 2
Marica vs Sao Goncalo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marica Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo Thomaz
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sao Goncalo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marica 42 / 100
Sao Goncalo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marica Sao Goncalo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Marica or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Marica attacking → ← attacking Sao Goncalo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marica scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Sao Goncalo let in goals in 59% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Marica went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Sao Goncalo lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 38
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Americano1181218:925
2Marica1173111:724
3Resende1154216:919
4America RJ1151518:1416
5Perolas Negras1151511:1516
6Sao Goncalo1142511:1014
7Bonsucesso1142510:1114
8Olaria1134411:1113
9Cabofriense1133512:1312
10CEAC/Araruama1132611:1511
11Serrano FC1125410:1811
12Audax RJ1130810:179