Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mariehamn vs Lahti

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Cassubie Y.
Assist: Sans R.
30'
Sub
Ward K. In: Nurmi N.
Out: Ward K.
42' Event
Sans R.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Lahti in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lahti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Mariehamn
20%
Draws
73%
Lahti
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lahti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Mariehamn haven't matched Lahti's recent run of results.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Lahti taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%
Lahti Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mariehamn Lahti
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 5 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Lahti
0:2
May 26, 2026 Suomen Cup
Mariehamn vs Lahti
0:1
May 10, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Lahti vs Mariehamn
1:1
Mar 5, 2026 Liiga Cup
Mariehamn vs Lahti
4:0
Sep 19, 2024 Veikkausliiga
Lahti vs Mariehamn
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mariehamn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.34
Avg xA / game 0.22

Lahti Compare

Top Goalscorer Cassubie Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neemias
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mariehamn 10 / 100
Lahti 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mariehamn Lahti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lahti Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lahti conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Mariehamn's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Solid form: Mariehamn remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mariehamn VS Lahti
0.5 Goals Scored 1
2.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mariehamn

(Home)
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
25 Jul
Mariehamn
1 : 1
AC Oulu
20 Jul
Mariehamn
0 : 2
Lahti
11 Jul
Gnistan
4 : 2
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

Lahti

(Away)
09 Aug
Inter Turku
0 : 0
Lahti
01 Aug
Lahti
2 : 0
Jaro
26 Jul
Ilves
1 : 0
Lahti
20 Jul
Mariehamn
0 : 2
Lahti
11 Jul
Lahti
2 : 0
HJK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 19 11 7 1 34:17 40
2 Inter Turku 19 9 8 2 25:14 35
3 HJK 19 9 4 6 29:23 31
4 VPS 19 8 6 5 27:18 30
5 AC Oulu 19 9 3 7 22:22 30
6 Gnistan 19 8 5 6 29:24 29
7 Lahti 19 7 5 7 22:16 26
8 TPS 19 7 5 7 24:21 26
9 Ilves 19 7 4 8 31:31 25
10 SJK 19 4 6 9 24:29 18
11 Jaro 19 3 6 10 18:38 15
12 Mariehamn 19 0 5 14 9:41 5
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)