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Mariehamn vs Lahti - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Cassubie Y.
Assist: Sans R.
30'
Sub
Ward K. In: Nurmi N.
Out: Ward K.
42' Event
Sans R.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Lahti in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lahti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Mariehamn
15%
Draws
37%
Lahti
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Mariehamn haven't matched Lahti's recent run of results.
  • 48% — that's where the model lands on Mariehamn taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 19%
Lahti Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mariehamn Lahti
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 13
Draws 4 7
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.04 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Lahti vs Mariehamn
2:1
Jul 20, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Lahti
0:2
May 26, 2026 Suomen Cup
Mariehamn vs Lahti
0:1
May 10, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Lahti vs Mariehamn
1:1
Mar 5, 2026 Liiga Cup
Mariehamn vs Lahti
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mariehamn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Lahti Compare

Top Goalscorer Cassubie Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neemias
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mariehamn 40 / 100
Lahti 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mariehamn Lahti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lahti conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Mariehamn stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Mariehamn found the back of the net in 54% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Mariehamn VS Lahti
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mariehamn

(Home)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

Lahti

(Away)
09 Oct
SJK
1 : 0
Lahti
18 Sept
Lahti
1 : 1
Jaro
12 Sept
Ilves
3 : 1
Lahti
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
VPS
0 : 1
Lahti
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)