Sport Picks
Marilia vs Portuguesa Santista
Brazil
Paulista A3 Estadio Bento de Abreu 
AI Match Summary
Marilia play Portuguesa Santista in the Paulista A3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Marilia averaged 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded. Portuguesa Santista averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.81 conceded. In past meetings, Marilia won 1, Portuguesa Santista won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Marilia and 1.06 for Portuguesa Santista. This points to a Portuguesa Santista double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Marilia picked up more points recently compared to Portuguesa Santista.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.06 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marilia | Portuguesa Santista |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 31 |
| Wins | 16 | 17 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.44 | 1.42 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.63 | 0.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marilia Compare
Portuguesa Santista Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Marilia scored in 75% of their last 32 games.
Portuguesa Santista let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Marilia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Portuguesa Santista lost 0 of their last 5 games.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 26:9 | 36 |
| 2 | Marilia | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 23:6 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto EC | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24:13 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 16:11 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19:16 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 16:14 | 24 |
| 7 | EC Sao Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:15 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20:13 | 23 |
| 9 | Uniao Sao Joao | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:15 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva FC | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 16:15 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 13:24 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 13:22 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14:26 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 8:25 | 8 |
| 16 | Uniao Suzano | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10:28 | 5 |