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Marines vs Etincelles

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Marines Logo

Marines

2 - 3
FT
Etincelles Logo

Etincelles

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Etincelles in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Etincelles.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Marines
15%
Draws
48%
Etincelles
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Etincelles

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Marines have won more games recently than Etincelles.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Marines taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Marines Clean Sheet 68%
Etincelles Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marines Etincelles
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 10 8
Draws 9 12
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.4 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Premier League
Marines vs Etincelles
2:3
Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Etincelles vs Marines
0:2
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Etincelles vs Marines
0:0
Sep 15, 2024 Premier League
Marines vs Etincelles
2:0
Jan 27, 2024 Premier League
Etincelles vs Marines
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marines 68 / 100
Etincelles 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marines Etincelles

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marines Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marines found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Etincelles has conceded goals in 76% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Marines remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Marines VS Etincelles
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Marines

(Home)
30 May
Marines
3 : 2
Muhanga
24 May
Marines
1 : 1
Musanze
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
09 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Marines
06 May
Bugesera
0 : 4
Marines
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Etincelles

(Away)
30 May
Etincelles
2 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
26 May
Gorilla
0 : 4
Etincelles
22 May
Etincelles
1 : 6
Gorilla
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
13 May
APR
3 : 1
Etincelles
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 74:25 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 50:28 68
3 Al-Merreikh 34 16 11 7 41:24 59
4 Rayon Sport 34 14 14 6 40:30 56
5 Kiyovu 34 13 14 7 34:21 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 29:19 52
7 Mukura Victory Sports 34 12 11 11 36:38 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 47:43 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 38:37 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 31:42 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38:54 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 32:40 37
14 AS Kigali 34 8 11 15 27:39 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 29:44 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 19:38 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 25:46 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 30:47 29
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)