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Maringa FC vs Santa Cruz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio Willie Davids, Maringá
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Pedro Favela
46'
Sub
Alex Ruan In: Arilson
Out: Alex Ruan
54'
Sub
Renato In: Vini Hora
Out: Renato

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz in this Serie C matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Cruz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Maringa FC
35%
Draws
38%
Santa Cruz
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Maringa FC at 1.57 per game, Santa Cruz at 0.97.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Maringa FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Maringa FC Clean Sheet 20%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maringa FC Santa Cruz
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.57 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs Maringa FC
1:1
Sep 12, 2026 Serie C
Maringa FC vs Santa Cruz
0:1
May 23, 2026 Serie C
Maringa FC vs Santa Cruz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maringa FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Vinicius
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maringa FC 36 / 100
Santa Cruz 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maringa FC Santa Cruz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maringa FC scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Santa Cruz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.67 goals per match.

Solid form: Maringa FC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Maringa FC VS Santa Cruz
1 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maringa FC

(Home)
03 Oct
Santa Cruz
1 : 1
Maringa FC
26 Sept
Botafogo PB
0 : 0
Maringa FC
19 Sept
Maringa FC
2 : 0
Botafogo PB
12 Sept
Maringa FC
0 : 1
Santa Cruz
06 Sept
Floresta EC
0 : 1
Maringa FC
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Santa Cruz

(Away)
03 Oct
Santa Cruz
1 : 1
Maringa FC
26 Sept
Floresta EC
1 : 1
Santa Cruz
20 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Floresta EC
12 Sept
Maringa FC
0 : 1
Santa Cruz
06 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Botafogo PB
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferroviaria 5 2 2 1 8:7 8
2 Internacional de Limeira 5 1 4 0 11:9 7
3 Brusque 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
4 Paysandu PA 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
Promotion - Serie B 2027 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maringa FC 6 3 2 1 6:2 11
2 Santa Cruz 6 3 2 1 5:3 11
3 Floresta EC 6 1 2 3 3:6 5
4 Botafogo PB 6 1 2 3 2:5 5
Promotion - Serie B 2027 (Main)