Sport Picks
Marinhense vs SC Lusitania
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 
Match Events
69'
69'
Sousa M.
71'
71'
Undonque A.
AI Match Summary
The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Marinhense and SC Lusitania finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Marinhense come out ahead of SC Lusitania on wins alone.
- Marinhense are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Marinhense Clean Sheet 68%
SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marinhense | SC Lusitania |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 5 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 2.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs SC Lusitania
1:1
Dec 6, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs Marinhense
0:0
Mar 9, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs Marinhense
2:0
Nov 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs SC Lusitania
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marinhense Compare
Top Goalscorer Undonque A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
SC Lusitania Compare
Top Goalscorer Sousa M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marinhense 59 / 100
SC Lusitania 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marinhense SC Lusitania
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
SC Lusitania let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.
SC Lusitania lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Marinhense's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Marinhense VS SC Lusitania
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Marinhense
(Home) 18 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 0 Marinhense
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5 Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1 SC Lusitania
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0 Marinhense
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0 Marinhense
Page 1 of 7
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5 Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1 SC Lusitania
15 Mar
Marinhense
0 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
04 Mar
Marinhense
2 : 1 Naval 1893
28 Feb
Marinhense
0 : 0 Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 4
SC Lusitania
(Away) 18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1 SC Lusitania
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2 Oliveira Hospital
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1 SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1 SC Lusitania
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1 SC Lusitania
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1 SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1 SC Lusitania
08 Mar
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 0 SC Lusitania
22 Feb
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1 SC Lusitania
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Sernache | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 33:12 | 55 |
| 2 | Oliveira Hospital | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39:13 | 50 |
| 3 | Naval 1893 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 36:23 | 48 |
| 4 | SB Castelo Branco | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 43:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Uniao Da Serra | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 38:27 | 44 |
| 6 | Mortagua FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 23:26 | 39 |
| 7 | Os Marialvas | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 33:28 | 36 |
| 8 | Fatima | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:29 | 32 |
| 9 | Lajense | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 37:37 | 32 |
| 10 | GD Peniche | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 34:43 | 30 |
| 11 | Samora Correia | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:35 | 29 |
| 12 | Marinhense | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 20:38 | 24 |
| 13 | Electrico FC | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 33:62 | 19 |
| 14 | SC Lusitania | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:48 | 17 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
