Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marinhense vs Sertanense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Mucuana Lobo E. J.
54' Event
Vieira J.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Marinhense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marinhense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Marinhense
39%
Draws
30%
Sertanense
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marinhense lately — more wins on the board than Sertanense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Marinhense here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Marinhense Clean Sheet 19%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marinhense Sertanense
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 10 11
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.25 0
Goals Conceded 1.5 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Sertanense
2:0
Aug 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Marinhense
2:3
Jan 21, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Sertanense
1:0
Sep 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Marinhense
1:1
Feb 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Marinhense
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marinhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Mucuana Lobo E. J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Sertanense Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marinhense 32 / 100
Sertanense 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marinhense Sertanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sertanense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Marinhense's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Sertanense's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Marinhense VS -
0.25 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Marinhense

(Home)
18 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 0
Marinhense
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
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Sertanense

(Away)
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1
Alcains
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 1
Sertanense
16 Mar
Sertanense
0 : 2
Mortagua FC
09 Mar
Arronches Benfica
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1O Elvas CAD26205141:1065
2Fatima26147530:1249
3Arronches Benfica26139427:1748
4GD Peniche26109731:2339
5Os Marialvas26910730:2837
6Mortagua FC26813523:2137
7Marinhense2699824:2136
8Alverca B2698928:2535
9SB Castelo Branco26810823:2134
10SC Pombal26881029:3432
11Uniao de Coimbra26671326:4425
12Sertanense26491323:3321
13Alcains26461617:3618
14Pero Pinheiro26261812:3912
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)