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Maritimo vs Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Correia R.
38' Event
Own Goal
87' Event
Gomes Aguiar F. T.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Maritimo and Nacional finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maritimo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Maritimo
20%
Draws
0%
Nacional
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maritimo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maritimo come out ahead of Nacional on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Maritimo's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Maritimo have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritimo Nacional
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 6
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.14 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Maritimo vs Nacional
1:0
Aug 3, 2025 Club Friendly
Maritimo vs Nacional
3:0
Aug 4, 2024 Club Friendly
Maritimo vs Nacional
0:0
Jul 23, 2024 Club Friendly
Maritimo vs Nacional
2:0
Jan 21, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Nacional
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maritimo Compare

Top Goalscorer Correia R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gomes Aguiar F. T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritimo 68 / 100
Nacional 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritimo Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maritimo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Nacional registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Maritimo's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Maritimo VS Nacional
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritimo

(Home)
19 Sept
Gil Vicente
1 : 1
Maritimo
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1
Maritimo
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
22 Aug
Maritimo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
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Nacional

(Away)
19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4
Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3
Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0
Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3
Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0
Nacional
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