Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maroons vs Kitara

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Byaruhanga J.

AI Match Summary

Kitara in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kitara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Maroons
35%
Draws
35%
Kitara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kitara lately — more wins on the board than Maroons.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Kitara here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.6%
Maroons Clean Sheet 68%
Kitara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maroons Kitara
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 9 17
Draws 11 9
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 0.84 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.66
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Premier League
Maroons vs Kitara
0:1
Dec 12, 2025 Premier League
Kitara vs Maroons
2:0
May 10, 2025 Premier League
Kitara vs Maroons
1:0
Dec 12, 2024 Premier League
Maroons vs Kitara
0:4
Mar 8, 2024 Premier League
Maroons vs Kitara
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maroons Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Kitara Compare

Top Goalscorer Byaruhanga J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maroons 42 / 100
Kitara 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maroons Kitara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Maroons has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Maroons found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Kitara conceded in 50% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Maroons VS Kitara
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maroons

(Home)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Maroons
0 : 3
Vipers
12 May
Maroons
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
07 May
Kampala City
3 : 0
Maroons
28 Apr
Uganda Revenue
2 : 2
Maroons
Page 1 of 7

Kitara

(Away)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
19 May
BUL
1 : 1
Kitara
15 May
Vipers
1 : 1
Kitara
12 May
Express FC
3 : 2
Kitara
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)