Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maroons vs UPDF FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium, Kampala
Maroons Logo

Maroons

0 - 0
FT
UPDF FC Logo

UPDF FC

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Maroons
20%
Draws
36%
UPDF FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maroons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Maroons lately — more wins on the board than UPDF FC.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Maroons Clean Sheet 20%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maroons UPDF FC
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 5
Draws 10 9
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 0.9 0.73
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Maroons
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Premier League
Maroons vs UPDF FC
0:0
Oct 15, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Maroons
1:2
Apr 16, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Maroons
2:1
Sep 15, 2024 Premier League
Maroons vs UPDF FC
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maroons 32 / 100
UPDF FC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maroons UPDF FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: UPDF FC conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Maroons scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Solid form: Maroons remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Maroons VS UPDF FC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maroons

(Home)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
08 Sept
Maroons
1 : 2
Blacks Power
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
30 Aug
Maroons
1 : 2
Uganda Revenue
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
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UPDF FC

(Away)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)