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Maroons vs Villa

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Mayanja I.
39'
Tamale S.
39'
Kene G.

AI Match Summary

Maroons in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maroons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Maroons
20%
Draws
56%
Villa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Villa have won more games recently than Maroons.
  • Villa are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Maroons Clean Sheet 16%
Villa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maroons Villa
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 9 22
Draws 11 7
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 0.84 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Uganda Cup
Villa vs Maroons
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 Premier League
Villa vs Maroons
2:0
Dec 6, 2025 Premier League
Maroons vs Villa
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Maroons
0:2
Oct 24, 2024 Premier League
Maroons vs Villa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maroons Compare

Top Goalscorer Mayanja I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Villa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maroons 11 / 100
Villa 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maroons Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Maroons remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Maroons's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Villa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 41% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

Maroons VS Villa
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maroons

(Home)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Maroons
0 : 3
Vipers
12 May
Maroons
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
07 May
Kampala City
3 : 0
Maroons
28 Apr
Uganda Revenue
2 : 2
Maroons
Page 1 of 7

Villa

(Away)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
16 May
Villa
1 : 0
Uganda Revenue
13 May
Mbarara City
1 : 3
Villa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)