Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marquense vs Xelaju

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Sub
Ruiz K. In: Castaneda J.
Out: Ruiz K.
28'
Jaen Y.
33'
Lopez A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Marquense
22%
Draws
60%
Xelaju
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Xelaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Xelaju carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Xelaju taking it.
  • Xelaju arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Marquense, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Marquense Clean Sheet 10%
Xelaju Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marquense Xelaju
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1 2
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Marquense
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xelaju
1:1
Apr 2, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xelaju
1:0
Feb 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Marquense
4:2
Nov 6, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xelaju
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marquense Compare

Top Goalscorer Casas D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Xelaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Tebalan W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marquense 18 / 100
Xelaju 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marquense Xelaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick XEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marquense scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Xelaju let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Difficult form: Xelaju registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marquense VS Xelaju
1 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marquense

(Home)
25 Jul
Antigua
3 : 1
Marquense
04 May
Xelaju
2 : 0
Marquense
30 Apr
Marquense
1 : 1
Xelaju
26 Apr
Guastatoya
4 : 0
Marquense
19 Apr
Marquense
1 : 3
Municipal
Page 1 of 6

Xelaju

(Away)
25 Jul
Deportivo San Pedro
1 : 0
Xelaju
24 May
Xelaju
1 : 2
Municipal
17 May
Municipal
4 : 1
Xelaju
11 May
Xelaju
2 : 0
Comunicaciones
08 May
Comunicaciones
2 : 2
Xelaju
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Xelaju3
Marquense1
Comunicaciones4
Antigua3
Municipal3
Guastatoya0
Deportivo Mixco2
Coban Imperial2
Semi-finals
Xelaju4
Comunicaciones2
Municipal7
Deportivo Mixco0
Final
Xelaju2
Municipal6