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Marquense vs Xelaju - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Sub
Ruiz K. In: Castaneda J.
Out: Ruiz K.
28'
Jaen Y.
33'
Lopez A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Marquense
20%
Draws
33%
Xelaju
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marquense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Marquense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Marquense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Xelaju, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Marquense Clean Sheet 14%
Xelaju Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marquense Xelaju
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 13 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.07 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xelaju
0:4
May 4, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Marquense
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xelaju
1:1
Apr 2, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xelaju
1:0
Feb 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Marquense
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marquense Compare

Top Goalscorer Casas D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Xelaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Tebalan W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marquense 31 / 100
Xelaju 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marquense Xelaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Xelaju Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marquense scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Xelaju let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Marquense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marquense VS Xelaju
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Marquense

(Home)
03 Oct
Marquense
2 : 1
Antigua
27 Sept
Marquense
1 : 0
Malacateco
19 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 0
Marquense
13 Sept
Marquense
0 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
10 Sept
Comunicaciones
0 : 2
Marquense
Page 1 of 6

Xelaju

(Away)
04 Oct
Xelaju
2 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
27 Sept
Xelaju
2 : 3
Comunicaciones
24 Sept
Xelaju
4 : 0
Antigua
20 Sept
Suchitepequez
2 : 2
Xelaju
13 Sept
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Xelaju
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Xelaju 3
Marquense 1
Comunicaciones 4
Antigua 3
Municipal 3
Guastatoya 0
Deportivo Mixco 2
Coban Imperial 2
Semi-finals
Xelaju 4
Comunicaciones 2
Municipal 7
Deportivo Mixco 0
Final
Xelaju 2
Municipal 6