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Marupe vs Skanste

Latvia Latvia

Nakotnes liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Marupe play Skanste in the Nakotnes liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Marupe averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Skanste averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. In past meetings, Marupe won 1, Skanste won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 4, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Marupe and 1.50 for Skanste. This points to a Skanste double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Marupe
20%
Draws
42%
Skanste
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Skanste

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Marupe picked up more points recently compared to Skanste.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Marupe Clean Sheet 16%
Skanste Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marupe Skanste
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 14
Draws 2 5
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.53 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs Skanste
4:0
Sep 28, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs Skanste
0:1
May 17, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Skanste vs Marupe
1:0
Aug 3, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs Skanste
0:0
Apr 6, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Skanste vs Marupe
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Penka R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Korsaks K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Skanste Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marupe 37 / 100
Skanste 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marupe Skanste

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Skanste or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Marupe attacking → ← attacking Skanste

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marupe scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Skanste let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Marupe went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Skanste lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 47
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FK Metta12101142:1131
2Valmiera1292132:1229
3Riga Mariners1284025:1028
4Leevon PPK1273220:1524
5Alberts JDFS1262425:2020
6Marupe1261522:1519
7Super Nova 21254319:1719
8Riga FC 21251619:2216
9Skanste1141620:2113
10RFS 21223715:269
11Tukums 2000 21222816:318
12JFK Ventspils1114612:207
13Rezekne1212910:365
14FK Smiltene1204812:334