Sport Picks
Mashujaa vs Kagera Sugar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara Lake Tanganyika Stadium, Kigoma 
Match Events
39'
39'
Said M.
46'
46'
Sub
Mhagama C. In: Daudi M.
Out: Mhagama C.
65'
65'
Daudi M.
AI Match Summary
The Ligi Kuu Bara game between Mashujaa and Kagera Sugar finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mashujaa.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mashujaa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
36%
/ Low Confidence
- Mashujaa carry the better recent record into this one.
- 36% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Mashujaa Clean Sheet 17%
Kagera Sugar Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mashujaa | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 5 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 0.73 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 27, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mashujaa vs Kagera Sugar
2:1
May 12, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa
0:1
Nov 30, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mashujaa vs Kagera Sugar
1:1
Feb 16, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa
1:1
Aug 16, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mashujaa vs Kagera Sugar
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mashujaa Compare
Top Goalscorer Daudi M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lyawatwa H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Kagera Sugar Compare
Top Goalscorer Said M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mashujaa 31 / 100
Kagera Sugar 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mashujaa Kagera Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Kagera Sugar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kagera Sugar let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Mashujaa scored in 53% of their last 30 games.
Solid form: Mashujaa remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Mashujaa VS Kagera Sugar
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Mashujaa
(Home) 27 Oct
Young Africans
2 : 1 Mashujaa
13 Oct
Simba
6 : 1 Mashujaa
08 Oct
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Polisi Tanzania
09 Sept
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Singida Black Stars
04 Sept
Dodoma Jiji
1 : 0 Mashujaa
Page 1 of 6
08 Oct
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Polisi Tanzania
09 Sept
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Singida Black Stars
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Kagera Sugar
30 Jun
Mashujaa
0 : 1 Tanzania Prisons
27 Jun
Mashujaa
2 : 0 Kinondoni MC
Page 1 of 3
Kagera Sugar
(Away) 28 Oct
Coastal Union
1 : 0 Kagera Sugar
24 Oct
JKT Tanzania
1 : 0 Kagera Sugar
17 Oct
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1 Polisi Tanzania
09 Oct
Mbeya City
1 : 3 Kagera Sugar
13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1 Fountain Gate
Page 1 of 6
28 Oct
Coastal Union
1 : 0 Kagera Sugar
24 Oct
JKT Tanzania
1 : 0 Kagera Sugar
09 Oct
Mbeya City
1 : 3 Kagera Sugar
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Kagera Sugar
22 Aug
Geita Gold
6 : 2 Kagera Sugar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19:5 | 22 |
| 3 | Azam | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 20 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12:12 | 17 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:5 | 15 |
| 6 | Coastal Union | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9:13 | 13 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 8 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9:12 | 12 |
| 9 | Mashujaa | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10:15 | 12 |
| 10 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14:11 | 11 |
| 11 | Mbeya City | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8:13 | 10 |
| 12 | Geita Gold | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 13 | TRA United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5:13 | 6 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9:18 | 6 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)
