Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Pamba

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mashujaa play Pamba in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mashujaa averaged 0.47 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Pamba averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Mashujaa won 1, Pamba won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 4, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Mashujaa and 1.19 for Pamba. This points to a Pamba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Mashujaa

34%

Draws

35%

Pamba

Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Pamba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Mashujaa picked up more points recently compared to Pamba.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 54%

Over 2.5 Goals 32%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%

Mashujaa Clean Sheet 20%

Pamba Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 49%

Second Half Goal 51%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mashujaa	Pamba
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	7	9
Draws	11	8
Losses	12	13
Goals Scored	0.47	1.03
Goals Conceded	0.9	1.2
Expected Goals (xG)	0.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mashujaa vs Pamba

Possession: 55% - 56% Cards: 2 - 4

0:0

Oct 17, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Pamba vs Mashujaa

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 4 - 1

2:1

Mar 29, 2025 Federation Cup

Mashujaa vs Pamba

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

Feb 19, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mashujaa vs Pamba

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 1 - 4

2:0

Sep 21, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Pamba vs Mashujaa

Possession: 52% - 58% Cards: 3 - 1

2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mashujaa 32 / 100

Pamba 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mashujaa Pamba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pamba or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +23.2%

3.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mashujaa attacking → ← attacking Pamba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mashujaa scored in 37% of their last 30 games.

Pamba let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mashujaa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Pamba lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 35

0.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9