Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Simba

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mashujaa play Simba in the Ligi Kuu Bara. Simba are favorites here. Recently, Mashujaa averaged 0.47 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Simba averaged 1.87 goals scored and 0.35 conceded. In past meetings, Mashujaa won 1, Simba won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 14, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.38 for Mashujaa and 1.94 for Simba. This points to a Simba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%

Mashujaa

22%

Draws

56%

Simba

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Simba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Mashujaa picked up more points recently compared to Simba.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.38 vs 1.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 55%

Over 2.5 Goals 32%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%

Mashujaa Clean Sheet 10%

Simba Clean Sheet 24%

First Half Goal 50%

Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mashujaa	Simba
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	7	23
Draws	11	8
Losses	12	0
Goals Scored	0.47	1.87
Goals Conceded	0.9	0.35
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mashujaa vs Simba

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

0:3

Jan 29, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Simba vs Mashujaa

Possession: 56% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

May 2, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Simba vs Mashujaa

Possession: 41% - 43% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Nov 1, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mashujaa vs Simba

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Apr 9, 2024 Federation Cup

Mashujaa vs Simba

Possession: 54% - 45% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mashujaa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38

Avg xA / game 0.25

Simba Compare

Top Goalscorer Chama C.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mwalimu S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.39

Avg xA / game 1.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mashujaa 22 / 100

Simba 55 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mashujaa Simba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Simba Win (2)

Secondary Pick Simba & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +57.1%

7.14

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +23.2%

3.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mashujaa attacking → ← attacking Simba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mashujaa scored in 37% of their last 30 games.

Simba let in goals in 29% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Mashujaa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Simba lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 77

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.63

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9